How Many Old 1800 Stamps Still Exist..??

That is correct codehappy...The rate of survival varies, some may have 10% and others may be even below 1%, guess we may never know.
Makes the hunt for rare stamps a roller coaster ride.

Robert

Robert,
Please post more examples.Thank you.

Here are a few more Louise411

Robert

This is interesting info wert - where are you getting this from?

Hi gmot

Nothing earth shaking..Was talking to my friend Jim, a big stamp collector and we agreed that probably about 2% of 1800's stamps could have survived...Then took info from Unitrade and N.S.S.C. and Archives Canada and did a bit of math..That"s it.

Robert

Got it - thanks.

So far what comes closest to what actually still exists of rare 19th century stamps comes from postage stamp censuses.

An example is the Siegel census: https://siegelauctions.com/census.php

yet there are clearly more out there than Siegel has intheri census.

EG

https://www.ebay.com/itm/271a-6-189...AOSwM99avjkn

Siegel census has its limitations...I don"t believe they are capable of gathering that accurate information....A few years ago I wanted to start a census on 1800's Canadian stamps, I was told by a big collector friend of mine that it would be impossible to gather that information.

Here is an example about how inaccurate information is out there and we can not gain that information....(HERE IS A GOOD EXAMPLE) I was driving with my friend to BNAPS in Toronto and we got talking about Canadian coins, we were talking about the 1969 large date Canadian dime...Census says there are 10 known, he said Robert I have a friend that has 8 more that no one is aware of.

This holds true with stamps...That is why my friend and another big stamp collector and finally myself agree the 1% to 2% is as close as we can get to anything close to being accurate.

Robert

No census can be considered complete within some stated time period. The important thing is to define the scope, define the data to collect, and have some idea of a systematic methodology to insure that you and the other collectors of data have a way to keep track of sources examined and data recorded.

Then you work like heck to find all the data you can, add it to the census, and go look for more.

One example of a long-lived cover census is the Census of the USA 1847 issues on cover, Scott No 1 and 2, maintained on the web site of the US Classics Society. See it at:

https://www.uspcs.org/resource-cent...over-census/ br /

It's been around for over 50 years, and new covers are still found on a regular basis, and added to the census. But it is a position where everyone can access it, examine the contents, and even determine if a cover they have in their collection as been recorded.

Another smaller example is the USA Domestic Registration Label Form 1549A on cover, maintained on the Stamp Smarter website.

http://stampsmarter.com/features/NY...549Home.html

The first census published some 20 years ago only include about 150 covers, today there are close to 500 covers identified.

Such projects are never-ending, but each year as more and more items are entered, it gets better and more accurate. Is it perfect? No. will it ever be complete? NO. But it can certainly provide insight into the type of materials recorded in a census or any census.

mml1942

You make good points, and I agree, it will NEVER be complete. Example, say some kid in a small town of lets say Hungary who does not know of any existing process to gather information on survival rates of 1800 stamps, cover, etc...His/her information may never make it to any informational gathering process...Even gathering information in USA/Canada is extremely hard to do.

So what do you think of the 1% to 2% survival rate theory..????

Robert

A census, no matter how incomplete, has roots based in fact.
A guess of 1-2% is just that, a broad-brush guess, and worthless.

When trying to understand how many are left, we need to consider how they were used and if people saved the resulting product. Stamps primarily designed for advertising circulars are less likely to survive than ones on letters.

Very true alub...I am getting a little flack, but I was really trying to create a conversation on how many stamps survived, I guess maybe I should have not started the post..Was just trying to create conversation..Guess we will never know what is out there...End of my post..Thanks guys for your input.

Robert

Even when you know how many of a certain stamp or class of cover might exist, it is still difficult to confirm it.

Consider the US C3a Jenny invert. We know there were 100 in the original sheet, and we believe that one or two were destroyed, and we know that four were stolen and one is still not recovered. But even knowing there were 100, we can't confirm how many survived, but we can estimate that it's in the range of 95+%

Here is another example which has been one of my casual projects. In April 19, 1935, Amelia Earhart began a non-stop flight from Los Angeles to Mexico City. On May 8th, she then flew a second non-stop eg from Mexico City to New York. It is documented that there were 40 covers canceled in Los Angeles and flown on both legs, and a second group of 40 cancelled in Mexico City and flown to New York. All were signed by her, and they are a well known group of un-official flight covers.

For five years, I've accumulated data (and digital images) to document the surviving covers. They are easily recognizable, as there was a special stamp issued by Mexico, and it was applied and cancelled on all covers in Mexico City, and they were registered on each leg of the flight and the registration numbers are in sequence. At present, I have located only 8 covers from the first leg, and 15 from the second leg. That's a total of 23 out of 80 covers, or slightly over 25%. The others are a mystery.

Well, probably not a real mystery. No doubt, many do still exist in collections that have not seen the light of day in the past 30 years, and since it's a private census, those collectors have no way of knowing about my interest. There may be older records in auction catalogs I've not examined, but it's not feasible to try and locate every sale of this material.

Does this make my census of these Earhart covers invalid? No. Is it complete? Also no. But it's a start, and if I'm clever enough to leave it somewhere when I'm gone, some younger postal historian can work to fill in the missing pieces.

One factor that has to be considered when contemplating any form of census, and that is how large of a set of data must you have before you can make a meaningful interpretation. Too large a sample set, and you'll never collect sufficient data to be meaningful.

Between the Census of different stamp issues on the Robert A Siegel Auction Gallery website, and the PSE grading records, we have the start of factual census information for a wide variety of US postage stamps. I think over time we will see additional examples of the stamps in these census DB uncovered and discovered, and added. We'll never know for certain how many of a variety might exist, but we'll have information on the number known.

I realize that the original post was directed at survivability of stamps, and one of my examples are for covers. (I only collect postal history.) But it's not quite like comparing apples and oranges, as the concept and implementation is pretty much the same.

Mike