Stamp Prices And Covid

Hello, it's already one whole year since COVID restrictions started, and maybe this has affected on how people spend their time, less activity in the street, more time at home.
Do you think stamp prices have grown since then? Are the same? Are falling? What's your perception?
I think that, at least from my own experience, prices have grown in auctions...

With all the high auction prices being reported, I would expect prices to go up somewhat. I've also seen various online dealers get their stocks run down to low levels often enough, so they needed to replace stock. Yet I haven't seen any price rise in non-US stamps. Too soon to tell? Maybe everyone's waiting for the new Scotts to tell them what to do?

Plus I'm still winning the same proportion of ebay auctions of country page lots of middle to lower values (without the highest values possible), often for much less than I bid. There is somewhat more competition lately in numbers of bidders, at least. In contrast, in the few times recently that I've bid on relatively complete/very solid collections, I've been beaten most times, and soundly.

I'm seeing much less to bid on, in general, for USA stamps than 1,2,3 years ago. I believe average daily US total (BIN/Auctions) on ebay are way down from over 3 million a couple of years ago. What I do bid on, almost always gets outbid, no matter how much I bid. My wife is happy, because I'm not spending ANY money :-)

As a seller and buyer during the past year I can attest that the market is hot for US material, large lots/collections and certain Countries/Areas. As was already mentioned, dealer stocks running low and strong bidding at traditional auction houses are indicators. As always when speaking of single lots condition still very much matters. As for the dealer type wholesale lots the sky is the limit because the ebay "rare" stamp monster needs to be fed.

My ebay sales are stronger this year than last with auction prices up 25-30%. Fewer worldwide collections have been offered at public auctions and bidding has been very competitive for the few collections available.

I think collectors have come back to the hobby and I wonder if it will last after travel opens back up.

Ken

Floortrader has noted on other threads that auction demand for big lots has been much higher than pre-COVID.

@KRelyea: travel is already coming back. I've seen recent articles about seniors traveling again; at least within the US; once they have gotten their vaccine shots. Myself, I've had both shots, but I am in no hurry to "hit the road" again.

I have two types of purchases:

Early USA singles - scarce shades, plate varieties, colored cancels, fancy cancels - stamps with a 'story' that is a little different than the regular stamp of the same issue. I have made only a few purchases over the last year - maybe 20% of normal. Prices are up and I am not yet used to the new paradigm, so I am missing out on some purchases.

Small country collections to fill in my WW collection. If I am having a dry spell with my single USA purchases, I tend to spend more on the WW stuff. Large lots are selling for much more than I am willing to spend so I have made very very few WW purchases this year.

I have enough of a backlog with my stamp collecting that I am doing other things to improve my collection over the last year. I bought another binder, so I am re-doing my Scott Int'l Albums - 12 albums into 13 binders, adding interleaving, adding blank pages, re-ordering some countries that have bothered me over the years, etc. For now, I am waiting to see what the stamp market does after the COVID is under control. Are the rises permanent or will prices go back down after people are able to go back out and do the things they did before?? I don't know.

In quite a few States people have been out and about for quite some time. Hard to tell what if anything it means to the stamp market.

Fitness equipment and collectibles have seen major changes due to COVID and I am willing to bet that those markets stay hot.

From The Sunday Times, 14 March. About the art market, but similar bubbliness.

Two different animals.

In my opinion, Stamp prices in the retail market are definitely higher. I don't participate in the "high end" where some others do, but I would expect that to be the "investment" grade of the hobby, I.e. Inverted Jenny, and really anything in the US market over 2-3 k. When Mr. Gross liquidated he kept the inverted Jenny's , I read.
Less than that I would think cyclical.
As Shelby Foote stated in a documentary "wait awhile, they'll come tumbling back. "Rule #2 "never be in a hurry to buy. "
Used car prices are up 17% yoy
WSJ March 13, 2021

I don't think you can paint the whole philitical market with one brush . There 4 different markets with 4 different buyers and sellers types .

You got the investment buyers ,then you got the collectors market ,then you got hobbyist who buy mixtures and packet material . Last section is the novelity items .There is a lot of overlapping in each section .

Agree with Floortrader 100%. More collectors for the same quantity of material equaled higher prices. The questions are how many stay in the hobby and how many bail out and how many of those that bail out will dump their material back into the market.

For US material I hear active and up while I see active and up myself. Even individual sales of sheets are going over face before sales tax (if appropriate) shipping on ebay, sheets that sold at a discount from face before the pandemic.

As to the top flight material, https://www.sothebys.com/en/digital...art-weitzman coming in June will certainly set a tone. The British Guiana One-Cent Magenta, Inverted Jenny Plate Block (US C3a) and sole legal to possess $20 gold 1933 Double Eagle Coin are to be sold by their one current owner.

Just my own personal observation but it does seem like prices on US material have been slowly climbing. Not so much with WW though.

Prices in my opinion for modern US material have increased significantly since the pandemic. Inflation will accelerate this trend.