Collapse In Stamp Prices On Better Worldwide Stamps .

Looking at the results of Dutch Auctions and Kelleher prices for better Worldwide stamps . These are stamps that the catalogs starting at $200.00 to $4,000 in catalog value are showing a post -Covid price drop . Many dozens of stamps are selling much lower than 50% and some going for 18% to 33% of catalog . Sure there are still gems that do realize prices of 40% to 70% of catalog but these are exceptions .

The many are getting lower prices than 2 or 3 years ago .Collections and bulk box lots are still getting good returns on auction house estimates but the better stamps are dropping ,these are key stamps and sets to fill out a country collection .

Two sales does not a market make. I would withhold judgement until their is a definitive trend and we are into the Fall/Winter months. Russia/Soviet is still very much "hot". On the other hand inflation is becoming a factor for some collectors and any Federal cash payments ala Covid relief are done and over. We shall see. Cherrystone, Harmer, and Raritan are coming up and will be worth watching. Golden Oak was soft I will agree.

Has this trend you're noticing been over time or just a recent sale or two?

There could be a number of reasons for this. I'm just spit balling here but could it be...

- Increased access to and acceptance of "cheaper" material on sites like eBay/Hip/Dan's, etc.
- Time of year actually has some influence on bidding. In my sales I find the best results are in the spring (tax refund time?) and mid fall. The worst are mid-summer/early fall (Vacation time?). January can be rough too as everyone is recovering from Christmas.

Another headwind is the stock market and crypto have been flat to down over the summer. When I was making 3% a month in the market I was willing to spend more. losing 2%, not so much. :)

Only an American! Since May, the stock market moved up around 2.8% each month. I make that between 35% and 40% year.

America is not the world.

Lets not forget we are still in the summer season, and the stamp market softens in the summertime. Granted, we are in mid-September, and we are seeing the beginning of the 'stamp season' but that usually starts a bit later than now. I think stamp companies are trying to 'cash in' on the COVID bump to the stamp market, but we are tired of all the COVID restrictions and are, I suspect, trying to get back to some semblance of normalcy. I think that means some people are a bit burned out by not having a stamp 'off season' this year. This lull in the market may have something to do with that. I've thought all along that when the COVID crisis is over that the stamp market would likely return to close to what it was 2 years ago. Although the COVID crisis isn't over, the psychology of 'putting it behind us and getting on with normal life' may be kicking in now WRT to the stamp market.

Just my personal little theory that is yet to be proven out. Or disproven. Like the other responders here have said, we will have to wait and see.

Generally, "October" is Stamp collecting month, the end of Summer and when more people start taking time to go to meetings, view and bid on auctions to pass time over the winter months. The cost of living lately, taking a bite out of finances; is also a cause for less disposable income to spend on hobbies.

I was looking at a lot of the modern errors at Kelleher, which I can almost guarantee to be remnants from Lang's stock. This stuff is not fetching anywhere near catalog. It's not everyday finds, many are super rare hard to find, and one would expect premiums for some of these.

It's not one sale. There has been softness for a while now (which I am not complaining about)
It's not condition. Centering and characteristics are a non-factor in most of these.
It's a targetted 30% of cat nearly across the board with a few contested lots with prices driven upwards.
The stuff is selling well under estimate levels.
Less than 5% of these lots were even near/over cat.


One would say normally only the PB or full sheet would fetch the Scott value. But here, those are heavily discounted.

It is either a great time to buy these, or we will see Scott drop these prices HARD due to the market results of the last year.

I think that this talk of the market softening has no basis in fact and is based upon a few recent particular sales and one or two highly specialized collecting areas. It could end up being self fulfilling though if everyone jumps on board. We are in the middle of August and the last really big sale I can find on SAN was the Schuyler Westpex sale a mere six weeks ago. That sale did phenomenal.

People were on this forum THIS WEEK complaining about the high Dutch Country prices and the same goes for the recent Rasdale sale.

I would also note that prices realized in quality sellers ebay auctions are as strong as I have ever seen them. They are at levels for Russian material that are driving me to brick and mortar dealers. The way that we buy stamps is changing and traditional auction houses are on the way out.

You could argue that singles and sets are weak and the sales I reference aside from Westpex were bulk material oriented. Fine, but prices for dealer material are not going through the roof due to low demand.

And since when does Scott drop any prices HARD?

People need to cool their jets and wait and wait and see what the Fall brings. I bet prices stay strong.

LOOKS LIKE we are confusing what I was saying .....I am talking about higher catalog stamps and sets , not bulk lots or junk boxes which continue to get prices at or above auction house estimates . I am talking about stamps or sets that catalog in the hundreds and into the thousands of dollars .

The better stamps are realizing a lower percentage of catalog and this was already happening before COVID and it is continuing this downward trend over the past few years . Look at THE PRICES the auction houses are posting it is clear a slide is happening over the past 2-3 years and the slide downward is still with us .

I mentioned this two years ago after a auction of German Colonies as I watched prices realized held below auction house estimates and me buying material lower than I thought possible . Stuff that normally would get 1/2 catalog is now getting 1/3 catalog on a regular basis

Interesting conversation. Nothing goes up forever. Stock market is high, crypto is insane (see dogecoin ).
A lot of markets run on emotion, not intrinsic value. Stamps(US singles, classic period) seem high to me, and certain issues very high, think US 245. The bargains are in what people are not pushing higher, so it seems to me.
By the way, the S&P 500 has now earned what they earned in 2019 (top line). They are collectively priced 60% higher than 2019, a sobering thought. In my opinion. Everyone recognizes the bubble after the pop.

Mr. Floortrader might very well be prescient.

Floortrader - This is why I am confused. In your original post you said:




Later you said:




It is not clear exactly what you are pointing to.

I collect mainly Russia/Soviet material now and can tell you that overall prices and competition for material is strong. Very strong.

I think that there are many things going on. Inflated catalog values that have not changed to reflect reality in many years for countries such as Italy and other Western European countries. When you see a low ratio sales price to cv value that is a false indicator. Some regions and areas become "hot" and others cool off. Happens all of the time.

IMO though a lot of what you see is mainly material flooding the market chasing the high values that people saw being realized and skewing supply/demand such that prices are pushed downwards in some areas.

Everybody talked up the market and saw "crazy" prices being paid and rushed to sell.

Given the level of economic expertise shown in this thread, can someone please help me with my monthly budget, we are broke for some reason
Food - $200
Data - $150
Mortgage - $800
Utilities - $150
Stamps - $3600


Thanks
Don

Don - Get rid of Food, Data, Mortgage and Utilities.

Instant analysis on limited data is what the world seems to thrive on.

John