Fake Cancels Added To Highly-Graded Stamps

Except that in addition to new examples, older examples keep coming back for new certs, too. A few dozen of each of perhaps 600 or 700 or 800 different cat numbers (remember that a lot of classic era BOB also get graded) will continue the model for quite some time. Postage, air mail, and BOB to 1930 is a lot of numbers.

All anyone has to do is look at auction results of graded items to determine the viability of the market. On ebay, I'm seeing some graded items sell higher than SMQ values. Personally, I'm ok with paying up to 50% of SMQ for certain items, but the scale moves depending on the popularity of an issue. The Siegel site provides historical data for specific graded items, prices realized.

The prices remain strong for highly graded items precisely because the supply remains low and static.

John Becker:




I cannot speak for others, but if I ran across this stamp with only the later cert, I would just walk away. The 'anonymous' flag cancel worries me - its appearance is not sharp. If I am going to spend dozens (100's??) of times of CV for a high grade used stamp, I want a nice identifiable cancel on it. I am a believer that modern high grade used stamps are 'rare' in the grading population counts because only a handful of people would send such things in for a cert. If I REALLY wanted a used 98/100 C-whatever-it-is, I would look for one myself in the various bargain-bins at a show. I contend that used 98 C-whatever-it-is are not at all rare. I could probably find one for under 50c at the next regional stamp show in my area.

If you were asking how would identify it as a fake cancel, well, I can't. Fake cancels tend to be 'anonymous', as this one is, and that's enough for me. Even with a good cert. Frankly, PSE dropped the ball here. They should have checked their records for other examples of this stamp in their records (obviously, including mint examples). SAN has the ability to scan all their records (from dozens, or 100's, of various stamp sellers, not just one) for duplicate examples of the same stamp being sold so SAN users can see the sales history of any particular stamp. I would expect the software could be tweaked to ignore cancels, or to only compare perfs.

As to cancelling devices available to collectors - they are all over the place. I have seen them sold by stamp auction houses over the years, or at small local estate-type auctions. Many are broken, but if you use one to cancel the corner of a stamp, you can easily locate it so the broken section is clear of the stamp. The hardest part of duplicating old cancels may well be getting the right ink. Going down to Office Depot and getting an ink pad won't even be close.

I am a cynic at the core. I am always considering whether a cancel has been added later, or not. I expect that I have walked away from perfectly good honest stamps because I wasn't comfortable with the cancel. Oh well.

Absolutely possible, but we're talking a potential significant time investment to do so. With the naked eye, most would not be able to distinguish the difference between a 98 and 100 grade, taking into account just the centering. It really takes someone to take the time to scan the item and use one of the grading software tools to know for sure. I would suggest that out of a dozen used stamps that might have a very high centering grade, there are likely small faults present or heavy cancels that would detract from the final grade.

Add in the time to submit the item for grading, the wait time to receive back...

The point being, it is not a trivial process and is not for everyone!

I wish I could find it but have not so far. A few years ago, Siegel held an auction of one man's property that consisted exclusively of stamps that he had graded after poring over massive quantities of each issue. He was not a wealthy man (they said that) but spent decades searching for 100 grade stamps and he succeeded but it was huge a labor/obsession. It was not as easy as one might think, and the real cost was in the submissions after he narrowed down the possibilities. The prices realized for more modern common stamps was astounding. The balance lots were cartons and cartons of slabbed and non-slabbed stamps with grades in the 98's and higher which were bid up aggressively and probably ended up on ebay.

I want to find and post the catalog because it went into the difficulties involved in finding common stamps that met the highest grading criteria.

Got it, I think. The Siegel Henson sale from 2019. below is an example of a Scott 554 that sold at the auction:



https://stampauctionnetwork.com/Y/y121223.cfm

Nice stamp.

Shame about the short perfs.

Prices remain high because each stamp has only one winner. The supply is not static. Most collectors don't care about grading unless they have immediate plans to sell. So a lot of nice items are in collections already, with no plans to grade them, at least not in the immediate future. Although it certainly is not true for every stamp, there are plenty of nice examples of popular stamps out there which have not been graded so far.

static: showing little change

Look at the POP report for any classic issue and you will note that there are single digit and even single numbers for many of them. The population has been mined.




Pure supposition without any concrete basis. Of course, you can say the same about my opinion except that I can point to data showing how few there are thus far. Given the amount of say, $5 Columbians that have traded over the course of many years nobody can seriously say that there are unknown examples of 100 Jumbo's sitting in the illustrious Dr. Schwrkenslammer's collection.

Let's get serious if we are going to debate.

100J's no. But there are 90 and 95 examples out there still. It is true that more stamps are being graded with 85 as the lowest grade, as opposed to 90 as it used to be. For sure some stamps are harder to find, but there are plenty of other areas to start looking at if one really wants to collect certificates.

Which brings us back to my earlier comment:

I was referring to classic BOB, not modern trash. Collecting it is fine, but actually expecting people to pay big bucks for almost anything from the last 50 years is ridiculous (there are some genuinely scarce and valuable items from that era, but not many).

Most 100J's I'm seeing offered for sale are imperforate varieties over-cut to include portions of stamps on all sides. It's quite rare to see a perforated stamp as a 100J and even more rare if it's a classic era item.

I've had about 20 items come back graded 98 or 100 the past few years, but most are 95's with a few 90's and only a couple 85's.

I have found this thread to be very educational and interesting. I don't think there is a need or use for some to be offended by opinions. In discussions like these there will be both opinion and data (facts). Both are useful to this discussion to bring multiple perspectives, possible history, and real data to piece one of multiple puzzles together.

I am a collector and seller of mostly US stamps. I am also one who digs through accumulations to find the difficult gems that are well-centered and completely sound condition. I know how scarce these can be. If a stamp has made it through actual postal use, and is not a result of a favor cancel or non-contemporaneous use and has near perfect centering with ample margins without condition or perforation flaws - it is a scarce stamp.

I know that some may not understand why a person would spend $100 or more for a stamp that is used and may generally be available for 50c or less. Coming from a person who looks for these "in the wild", to find a stamp that is of this quality is truly something to behold and appreciate.

A collector trying to find even the very common stamps from the 1920s and even the 1930s with exceptional centering and condition will find it challenging. Having a certified stamp that is used and gem quality should be a way to get the stamp with confidence. This thread has illustrated that even certified stamps can be problematic. So the information, provenance, examples to compare, etc. is very useful for sellers, certifier and collectors.

I have found stamps in the wild (that catalog maybe a few $ as VF), and sold them for $100s, with more than one submitted by the buyer certified as XF-S or better (making the buyer happy that their multi-$100 purchase was a bargain). The fact that the VF catalog value is maybe 25c or a few $ is not important to the collector looking for these. They know that these centering/condition stamps are very scarce, and the pricing will reflect that. I do not generally certify any of the stamps I sell as gems, and believe as revcollector mentions, that there are probably many out there and will always be out there that the certifiers don't/won't see. So the actual population will always be in flux.

I also appreciate those on this board who often bring experienced reflections and data, like John Becker, 51studebaker, revcollector, rogdcam and many others. They are a wonderful asset to this board, that do not have to do this - it is their interest and free will to bring their opinions and data. Of course when people assert their opinions, some may feel threatened by the apparent assault or challenge, but I think it not necessary to attack, but instead respond at a more non-personal level.

Another type of cancel I have often seen that cannot be determined whether contemporaneous is the "mute oval" cancel. I have had many "gems" with the mute oval, followed by a "sigh", knowing that the value is diminished not knowing when the cancel was applied and whether it was a favor cancel or did actual postal duty.