Modern Stamps That Get More Expensive - To Keep Or Not To Keep?

Hello!
I'm a complete beginner, and I understand that I'm not going to get rich out of stamp collecting. So far I´m just getting poorer I am not chasing the money and I like gathering new stamps which are unlikely to cost anything ever.

But my question is, there are many stamps that were issued about 10 years ago that are now a tiny bit more expensive than their face value.

(I bought some random Irish stamps directly from the post office as I just liked how they looked and was planning to use them for letters and cards. I checked the catalogue out of curiosity and they go like: face value 82c, catalogue value 2.25; face value 60c, catalogue value 1.60, etc. )

I wonder if that's normal and what happens to all stamps after several years, or only some stamps get higher catalogue value over time? And if the latter, then should I keep a couple of duplicates of those in vain hope that in several decades they can be sold for a bit more? I understand that it will be like $5 max most likely, but still. Or should I just stop overthinking and slap them on the envelopes as I planned?

I'm sorry if it's a stupid question, and if there is somewhere I can read about this, I'd appreciate a link.

Thank you!

It depends where you buy. For example, if you buy modern, decimal GB stamps from an auction house, rather than individually, you'll pay a percentage of face value - usually 50-60% including the buyer's premium. You may pay a higher percentage for very recent material. A dealer will make a mark-up on the face value to make a profit.

Stamp catalogues reflect dealers' prices. Although 'wishes' might be a better word.
Dealers have costs.

When you buy a stamp from a dealer that you can still buy from the post office, expect the catalogue price to be 1.5 to 2 times the face value.
As soon as the stamps come off sale, the catalogue price becomes at least two times face value.
After another two years, many catalogues quote prices at three times the face value. In one hundred years, those modern stamps that kept getting more expensive are still at three times face value. By then, a grain of bread will cost what a loaf costs now.

By the way. Cross-check Michel, Yvert, Stanley Gibbons, Scott and Hibernian, and you will notice that there may be regional surcharges or discounts.

The challenge with catalogue value is to find a buyer there will pay the price

But I think you are asking a very good question about the future value of very modern stamps, since stamps now a days are printed in a very few numbers.

I dont follow Irish stamps, but if we look at Greenland they have from 2002 printed most of their stamps in less than 150.000 pcs. inclusive 10% as FDC. Currently the value is between 25-50 % of the catalogue value (when you have found the right buyer)

All about supply and demand. There are modern (early 2000's) Russian booklets that were produced in quantities of 1000 or less that can still be had for face from the post office. The quantity says "premium" but the demand says "no thank you". Will they be worth a lot in 50 years? Roll the dice.

I don't believe the "supply and demand " stuff ,with modern issues .

I believe it is the "Pump and dump " crowd , they are the circus barkers and con-artist that has been in the stamp business for the past 150 years . I would better say it is Price Manipulation by dealers who in the past worked on stuff like the Vatican stamps , Palau , Isreal and British Regional , there is a whole industry out there looking to jerk you around to buy what they are selling . "BUY NOW AND GET RICH "

If most of the adjacent stamps in that same catalog have a similar 2.75x multiplier over face, then that's just the default premium of that catalog and it sounds like what you have is ordinary postage. I have typically seen 2x face as a minimum catalog price, the "retail" price a full-service dealer may charge for the single stamp to cover his expenses of inventory and handling. Indeed in bulk, the same stamp may only sell for just 50% of face.
But there are certain premium issues that are more popular, like if they look pretty, they might be in higher demand by non-collectors. Some of the older "Love" stamps and other thematic issues are often used for wedding invitations and those have a higher premium over the basic value, but you're not going to get rich investing in them.
It is not normal for the retail value of modern postage to go up faster than the rate of inflation, but some issues do. If your catalog says that most of the 10 year old issues are listed at 2x face and the ones you bought are 2.75x, it might be worth hanging on to them. I wouldn't use them to pay bills with, but also if I wanted to dress up a birthday card with some pretty stamps, I wouldn't think twice and I would still use them as postage even if the catalog says they were worth 2.75x face.

I am still a relatively new at stamp collecting as I have been doing this for only 3 years. For the US stamps here are the issues that have had a healthy premium:

A) Priority Mail and Priority Mail panes. They have appreciated quite well and these used in very good shape are being discovered as scarcities for some years.

B) Used low denomination stamps ( 1 - 10 cents) are become less and less common than in years past. Part of the reason is the fast rise in the price of first class letter stamps --- in 1972 it cost 8 cents to mail a letter so you could easily use low denomination stamps. At the rate 66 cents in 2023, it would be hard to find space for 66 one cent stamps! So a potential area of collecting which is rewarding for both the designs and formats available as well as potential premiums on them (albeit modest).

C) Commemoratives can develop a premium but the theme has various sized niches -- anything to do with astronomy and space exploration does do well although over time the premiums have gone down. With current stamp issues' production ranging from 18 - 34 million, this may not be the case. Furthermore, used commemorative in very good shape are sometimes uncommon.


For World stamps these are the issues that have not done well over time because of overproduction and overuse of theme:

A) Princess Diana

B) Some British monarch issues (and not only from the UK, I can purchase a King George the 6th 3 cent Canadian stamp online for 10 - 20 cents).

C) Marilyn Monroe, Elvis and a few other American entertainers are overproduced though there may be a niche for them but realize these are saturated.

D) Animals --- one example is there are tons of bird issues and little premium unless there is something special about them such as the Dutch Caribbean bird stamps from I believe 2020 which were produced in very low numbers, based on uncommon, historic drawings, and quite beautiful.

E) Any country that churns out far more stamps than the populace will ever need. There are countries which see stamp production to collectors as a source of revenue for government coffers. Try to avoid that --- as well as overly gimmicky stamps (Austria is guilty of that although there many fine stamps otherwise issued by that county).

F) Commemoration of obscure government agencies or evidently politically motivate produced stamps, as well as very famous leaders (Ghandi, John F Kennedy, Simone Bolivar, Charles de Gaulle, Napoleon, Eisenhower, Churchill, etc).

Neutral cases that depend on several factors:

A) In the US we have many Flag issues that are considered definitives. Collecting an individual one MNH or used will not add much value to your collection. However, if you get a Flag stamp of a design you like in all formats and as new plate numbers are produced, you will have something of value that would attract collectors. The best way to do this is simply choose one particular Flag stamp and stick to it for awhile. Trying to do this with all Flag issues can be expensive and daunting UNLESS you are passionate about this theme. IN that case you could focus solely on US Flag stamps as a collector. It is an extremely rich area and historically interesting.

B) US Coil and booklet stamps MAY have a high premium. In the US the Washington Franklin stamps from the early 20th century can be worth much if a particular coil or booklet stamps even though a few were produced in large quantities. Why? I think it was the collecting habits then. You figure you could easily get a block of 4 from a sheet and booklet and coil formats were not as heavily pursued as they began to be decades later with the coil formats really taking off with the Transportation series starting about 1980 in the US. And to this day, coil and booklet stamps are an area pursued more by intermediate and advanced collectors as there are nuances not always found on sheets and panes.


I hope this info helps and I ask any of the seasoned collectors to correct anything I have posted.

PS. I do not touch upon errors although for modern postage that is where some extremely valuable stamps are found. Why? It is well beyond the scope of this thread and my knowledge. Unless you encounter a very obvious error (such as the perforation is definitely in the wrong place or the color of the stamp is evidently off) I would wait a few years before even buying error stamps. To give one example of how you need to be well-informed about error stamps take the Dag Hammerskjold commemorative stamp from the US issued in the 1960's. An invert error was produced which can be seen by a white strip on part of the stamp. The USPS decided to print millions of that stamp to avoid having a scarcity/rarity in the market and people hoarding the stamp. If you did not know this and some unscrupulous seller convinced you to spend $100 on the invert error you would be very disappointed to find you could get that stamp for 30 cents many other places - the same price as the original, error-free one.
(there is an entry on Wikipedia about the history of this error - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dag_H...B6ld_invert)

Thank you everyone for the detailed answers; I now understand it much better!

I have another newbie question regarding what @chris s said.
I currently reside in Ireland, and we have 1mln issues only when those are Christmas stamps. Otherwise it's about 100k, more or less (can be 60k, can be 120k). "Collectors' pairs" can be 12K.

Obviously, some tiny country with few stamp might have much less. But does it add to the value in long-term, or as @rogdcam says, it doesn´t matter because there are less people interested in such countries, thus less demand.

I know it's more of a guessing game, but maybe you can share your opinion.

With modern material, if the stamp was not scarce or rare to begin with, it likely won't ever have a catalog price not tied to it's face value. Catalogs like Scott's, and I am sure other catalogs as well, use a standard multiplier for new issues, as mentioned by ZebraMan above. If inflation or currency exchange rates cause general increases for a given country, the newer issues prices will flow with the general trend. I've been friends with a new issue dealer for a really long time, and he's told me he sells new issues for 50-75% over face, which is more or less standard for these kinds of dealers. Material can be found cheaper through places like ebay and HipStamp, BUT only after several years when the seller, who probably acquired the newer issues in auction lots, realizes the stamps don't sell well at much above face value.

There are scarce to rare newer issues out there, These are often though not exclusively from Africa, and often from countries who have a lot of wallpaper issued in their name. This material has usually been supplied by contractors for actual use in the nation of origin, or deliberately in limited quantities to provide an opportunity for speculation. These stamps can be found in Scott's- they are often long sets of overprints and sometimes aren't even priced in Scott due to lack of sales info. Examples are things like Mali Scott's 1099-1130 and Malagasy 1471-1490. This kind of material is very hard to find and was never inexpensive.

I am not sure who collects this kind of material and don't follow these kinds of sales if they occur in auctions. With a high degree of scarcity, stamps like these won't come cheaply and you won't have catalog values to guide you. Who knows what they are really worth or if they will appreciate in value.

If I were you, I would collect what I like and shoot for maximum enjoyment of the hobby. If you are trying to decide about what to spend money on, I would always focus on higher-cataloging material like complete definitive sets, avoid CTO material, and buy from places like ebay or HipStamp. Also, buy material that is several years old when the material has started to drop in price a bit, below what you would have paid for stamps when they were new issues.

Ireland is quite a popular country. But even with only 100k issued, I would not hold my breath.

Those 12K collectors' issue may get a higher catalogue price, but actual prices paid will go down when catalogue prices go up. Keeping up will all those issues directed at collectors only becomes too expensive. Many collectors will consider their collections complete without those. And that is where the system starts to break down, as album publishers will have to consider whether people will buy their album if many pages remain empty. As soon as they start to drop them, no one wants those stamps.

Most 'expensive' modern stamps are expensive because collectors did not know they were around until they saw the empty spaces in their albums. To fill the albums, they had to run to the dealers and prices were driven up. But they are few and far between.

Low numbers issued, usually reflect low demand. High numbers issued, usually reflect idle hope of third-world countries to make thematic collectors part with their money to buy issues completely unrelated to the countries. Either way, there is no good reason to expect prices to go up much. Also, if prices would double in 20 years, inflation will have made the real price go down.

If you want to invest in stamps that, considerably, will go up in price, invest in the stamps you will not invest in. Those are the ones everyone missed out on and need to buy to complete their collections.

Good point about CTOs -- generally not a popular niche - with only possible exception I would think United Nations stamps and even then you would want a CTO with a nice postmark. I myself will get them along with MNH very, very rarely to simply have a more complete collection. One example is the Mars Explorer stamps produced by the UN in 2021 - I got single stamps of the series and another set with CTO's. I figure it is nice to have them to know what a CTO looks like and create an interesting pairing. But I would be careful with these (and note things could change decades ago revenue stamps which are stamps bought and affixed to a product or document to show you paid a tax or government administrative service fee were shunned by many collectors decades ago but now are popular so tastes could change. However, CTOs have been around for decades and the demand for them has not seemed to change much).

NSK - great point. The US Priority Mail and Priority Mail Express stamps are a case in point starting in 2008 with the American Landmark series. Most collectors didn't think they would get the premium they have now as those type of stamps in the past only garnered a very modest one.

I forgot to add one category of stamps that generally does not get much of a premium for two reasons: extremely limited use and despite the apparently very modest production, it still is in excess of demand. These are the United Nations stamps. Once in awhile you will get one earning a decent premium. During 2020 the Covid-19 issue sold out quickly and now carries a pretty good premium for a very modern UN stamp. But these are far and few in between. You collect UN stamps for a) the excellent designs (just see the 2009 Ghandi stamp, bold beautiful and original approach) as well as the stamps covering topics rarely addressed by most countries (World Toilet Day stamp issue of 2021 --- yes a series of stamps celebrating efforts by the UN and NGOs to provide clean, sanitary bathroom facilities throughout the world!).

To chime in with NSK's and others' approach, I do NOT purposely seek to collect rare and scarce stamps. For that I do for a portion of my coin buys and even then it is done for something I am INTERESTED in for its history/design first. It isn't that I will not get a scarce issue once in awhile but I would prefer getting a scarce issue produced in the past 20 - 30 years than one from over 100 years ago because for the former, the price point will be MUCH lower than the latter in many cases. So you can collect for enjoyment while keeping alert to bargain scarcities. But solely chasing value usually has one making many costly mistakes unless guided by a seasoned and well-informed dealer with high integrity.

"I believe it is the "Pump and dump " crowd , they are the circus barkers and con-artist that has been in the stamp business for the past 150 years . I would better say it is Price Manipulation by dealers who in the past worked on stuff like the Vatican stamps , Palau , Isreal and British Regional , there is a whole industry out there looking to jerk you around to buy what they are selling . "BUY NOW AND GET RICH " "

It has really been much of this type of pump and dump hype.in many years. The only thing that comes to mind from recent years were the US imperf press sheets.