Rising Catalog Values - A Double-Edged Sword

I just finished analyzing the 1st-3rd issue revenue price changes in the 2013 U.S. Specialized catalog, and updating the data on my website and collection to reflect the new values.

The changes from 2012 to 2013 are the largest, most wide-sweeping increases I can recall in the period I've been doing annual updates (since about 2003).

On paper, my revenue collection increased in total value 18% from 2012 to 2013, which is a staggering amount (yes, that doesn't take into consideration condition, cancels, usage, etc.; for the sake of this discussion it's strictly base catalog value, which is really the only universal metric available).

Given the tepid nature of the U.S. classics market in general, and the downward adjustments that non-revenue classic material has seen, I would have been happy with the values holding their own. It's not just rare material that went up. Almost every imperf and part perf 1st issue stamp saw increases.

While this is great if you HAVE this material... it's not so great if you're still seeking or buying this material. The cost of acquisition just went up.

So I'm happy my collection is increasing in value, but annoyed that pieces I want will cost me more...

A great deal of this can be related to the acceptance of
the public to now buy online.
Vast numbers of collectors have access to stamps online
that previously they would perhaps wait for shows and stamp club auctions.
The ebay auctions tend to have buyers paying a premium.

Prices are cyclical, and I sense a speed bump coming soon.
Global disposable income is about to drop is my view.

Hasn't there always been a general feeling that US Revenue stamps were underpriced according to the catalog? It seems that maybe the catalog is now catching up with true market conditions.

As suggested in the previous post, the ability to buy such items online is creating renewed interest in those pieces that some collectors may not have ever seen outside of a catalog. There are many collectors who are "turned off" by the quality of today's stamps and choose to explore other areas of collecting (such as Revenues) when printing techniques and detailed engravings made a stamp a true work of art. Further, with more "demand" by online buyers, and a limited "supply" of the material, it usually means that prices will be on the rise. It's certainly good news for the people who have a nice Revenue collection; bad news for those who haven't yet purchased the items they want.

The question that no one really knows is whether or not the demand for such items will sustain those catalog prices in the coming years.

"The ebay auctions tend to have buyers paying a premium" - I don't monitor revenue sales on ebay, but in other US stamp areas I do watch, the opposite is true ( ebay buyers are generally cheap)