Stamp Attrition Rates

I was wondering if there are any studies on attrition rates for stamps? eg. Let's say there are 20 million of a stamp produced, how many end up being saved by collectors vs. how many end up destroyed, disposed, damaged etc.?

The USPS claims to be able to calculate "retention" rates, but I think their numbers are pure guesswork.

"Retention" is the proportion of an issue held for "collecting" purposes, rather than usage for postage.

Is there any specific stamp that you have in mind with regards to your question? There is a souvenir sheet variety in which 10,000 were issued which would make it a low quantity for a modern issue (1407ai). However, most were saved by many dealers and collectors so that its price has not gone up too much over the years. If someone cornered the market on these, it may go up more.

In the coin world they talk about "population". I have not heard of any attempt to calculate surviving numbers of stamps. Interesting question.

Although a few years old now, here's an excerpt from one of several raw studies on the subject:

Here's a 2005/2006 update to the data previous posted:

Here's a previous discussion on the subject:

https://goscf.com/t/19452

Ummmm, printing stamps is a profitable business!

printing a sheet of stamps is cheap...but when they overprint and scrap millions of stamps !

People who answer these types of surveys often give answers they think the surveyors want.

Also, even if the USPS numbers were accurate in the year the stamps were bought, the numbers keep falling with each year after purchase as some of theose "retained" get used and some get ruined.

It would be interesting for me to see stamp populations of used stamps vs mint stamps. I would be interested to know how many stamps end up getting dumped in landfills or being destroyed beyond collectibility. In my little fantasy world of stamp collecting it seems that a lot of stamps probably end up getting dumped after they are used or getting damaged by neglect, mishandling or other situations. With so much emphasis on retaining mint stamps I wonder if mint stamps way outnumber used stamps for some issues. In my years of collecting I have seen a lot of issues with mint stamps outnumbering used stamps. I realize that not all dealers like to handle used stamps but even with used stamps dealers some issues seem way easier to find mint than used.

Thanks for sharing. I was just curious because let's use as an example Canada Scott #91 made in 1903 which had over 66 million stamps produced. A mint VF copy of that catalogues for about $400 with a 250% premium if it is not hinged. But a Canada Scott #1436 made in 1992 which had 3 million stamps produced only catalogues for $1.25. Given the staggering difference in the amount produced between each stamp, it is clear that there should be way more #91 than #1436 which would be about a 2100% difference yet the #91 commands the higher value. Therefore attrition rates must be a significant factor.

It may be that the time that passed such as 110 years vs 20 years may play a factor in the catalogue value of the stamp. Also, there are probably more collectors that saved the newer stamp than the older stamp. Condition also plays a role in the price of an older stamp which commands a very high price for a very fine condition.