Stamp Collecting, The News Of It's Death Are Greatly Exaggerated.

I see Google Trends has not yet been mentioned as a way to measure hobby activity on the internet, so I thought I'd bring it up. Google Trends is a tool used to measure the popularity of a search term over a certain period of time. I've attached a screenshot of the keyword "stamp collecting". The data shown dates back to 2004 (the furthest back Google allows).



Numbers don't lie, but then again, I am not 100% certain Google's data tracking methods were completely accurate 10+ years ago (I am sure this could be verified somewhere, but I have not done the research on it).

Here's a link to Google Trends for those who want to explore the tool some more: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore

Be careful when using Google Trends (ask Washington Post about how they got caught using incorrectly and looked the fool).

Google Trends reports search numbers relatively within the date-range and in context of other trends.

So, for example, it could be that 'stamp collecting' search word is broad enough and the time period long enough that the results shown here simply indicate the growth of Google. As more people used Google over time that all common terms show a decline.

For example, here is 'coin collecting'


Don

I may fall into the "shadow" collector catagory. The type of person that doesn't show up in many metrics. I am an APS, USSS (new), and NSDA member. I basically I buy stamps via ebay, Hipstamp, APS Stamp Store, and a few dealers I know. I am near 60 years old and live in a small rural town so don't go to shows or bourses. My budget for stamps has been steadily increasing over the past 10 years as I have more time for the hobby. I don't have any plans to liquidate the collection for cash ever - I just like collecting for collecting's sake.

I was curious about the "demand" side of things and just checked some C13 Zep ebay listings ... most seem to be getting upwards of 10-25 bids in the $75 - $175 range (not the greatest quality ones either). Not a scarce stamp but still there's pretty keen interest in having one (not for me yet). When you start seeing Zep sets selling for below $500 then maybe panic is merited.

When considering prices you also have to factor in the inflation rate. Zeps are a good example, their catalog value is basically the same as it was in 1940. There was a big spike during the 1970s when inflation was so high. So it could be argued that stamp catalogs reflect inflation changes as much as they reflect actual market trends.
http://www.stampsmarter.com/learnin...gTrends.html

I also wonder about the argument that the 'greying' (aging) demographic is leading of the loss of memberships and decline of the hobby. It is well established that our hobby attracts older (40+) adults; so should not the greying of the population is good news for our hobby?



Looks to me that our hobby has significant potential growth in the decade.
Don

Don,

At first I did not understand what you were saying about the limits to the Google tool until I realized it wasn't "Ngram" that you were using. I don't think the same criticism would apply to Ngram, though other criticisms might. Nevertheless, I've found Ngram to be an interesting look at word usage (in books, not search patterns using Google). Here are two looks, FWIW:




Either one supports the notion of a declining interest in stamp collecting, with a caveat. I think Ngram is measuring frequency of usage. Over time, the number of books has probably grown exponentially. A constant usage would show a decline in frequency as the number of books increased. But that still translates into a decline in interest in the hobby on a per capital basis, I think. Now I'm not sure that this would or could be disputed, nor that it matters to the discussion, which to now -- and I have only lightly perused the thread -- focused on what insight we can gain from auction prices.

Incidentally, I took a quick look at "coin collecting" with Ngram, and it seems to be doing better at whatever this metric is measuring.

Basil

Don,

While I was writing and uploading the Ngram charts, you posted about inflation and the aging population. No dispute at all with you about the impact of inflation, unless you are being too charitable. On the whole, I'm not sure stamp values keep up with inflation. But "the whole" is not very homogeneous. The bulk of stamps do not keep up with inflation. Only "quality" stamps (or covers) do well to keep up with inflation. And as you know, just keeping up with inflation is a not a winning investment strategy if investment is your goal. Only in the rarefied stratus of the genuinely scarce and desirable philatelic items -- items bringing five to seven figures -- are we looking at "investment grade stamp collecting."

As to the aging of the population I don't think it can "grow" the hobby. At best it will, for a time, slow down any decline. Again, I'm sure you are aware of how the baby boom generation is like a huge meal working its way through the digestive system of a snake. When the last of the baby boom cohorts die off, the boost in aging population we are presently seeing will subside. But if it helps the hobby for a while, then great.

Basil

Hi Basil,
This is a bit dicey too; for example non-English speaking world is very poorly represented and things like poor OCR can significantly shew the results. You can read more here
https://www.wired.com/2015/10/pitfa...oogle-ngram/

http://www.economist.com/node/17849159

Don

Edit: I think that we can all agree on a few things.

First, it has gotten a LOT harder to measure the health of our hobby. Second, the numbers of ways that stamp collectors hobbyists can interface with the hobby has grown greatly. Third, no single metric exists that can be used to understand the health of the hobby. Fourth, to get an accurate understanding of the hobby today is going to take a significant number of diverse metrics.

Interesting discussion on analytics. Especially since tech companies are investing billions of dollars into analytic algorithms for almost everything now. Pretty charts and graphs are only as good as the quality of the data input to them.

Regarding the health of the stamp collecting world -- one thing did occur to me. One of the issues plaguing auction houses, to some extent, has been a loss of dealer support. With a decline in dealers to buy up bargain auction lots, the sell through rate has dropped for some. A good internet presence for sales, however, can, and often does, offset this. Essentially, this eliminates the middleman.

Case in point: I logged into the Rumsey sale for a bit, as there was a cover in there that I wanted to see how high it would go. I had not even considered buying it myself, as it was so nice an item, I knew that I wouldn't have a chance at it. I bought it for about 1/2 of what it should have realized. I got a bargain on an item that had a bad day, but I helped the sell-through rate for the house. Furthermore, if this had not been an internet sale, I would not have bid, and the item probably would not have sold. In the old days, a dealer on the floor would definitely have covered this, and retailed it for 4-times what I paid - easily. So the internet has really changed things. At this moment, I'm still quite giddy about those changes

I need to slap you guys around a little bit . Your talking about analytic algorithms, zeppelin stamps or cover and rare covers at auctions . Getting into studies of computer models and what ever .
This hobby is made up people buying kilo's, packets , mixture boxes, collections and single stamps under $25.00 that is where you judge this hobby, that's 75% of all the transactions taken place 50 years ago ,20 years ago and even today .
Say what you want but the fact remains those 2 cent mixture stamps that sold in the 1970's thru the 1990's now are getting sold on ebay at 5 cents each and you can sell them day and night. For 20 years I could buy ton's of stamps and sell them at 2 cents each and make a profit thru stamp ads in the various stamp newspapers . Now those lots that I purchased at auction are going for 3 or 4 times the price today .

Thank you Floortrader. The technical analysis was getting to be a bit much although it was entertaining.

Txstamp - I sat through two days of Rumsey and saw a completely different outcome. The vast majority of lots went for estimate or over by a good percentage. In fact I dropped out of 16 bidding wars on lots. Very strong overall from US individual lots through WW singles and into large lots.

floortrader - You make a good point in that "volume" of sales does matter a lot, when we are trying to determine the number of collectors out there, and gauge the hobby's health.

Total revenue also matters, however. I think that both are important indicators of the overall health.

rogdcam - Its probably a good example of how there are many sub-markets within the "stamp market". I watched some very nice things waiting for bidders. If I had had a bit more cash, I could have (and would have) cleaned up on a certain section of the sale.

Rumsey has a solid reputation as a seller, and offers some fantastic sales, such as this one. I agree that their results overall tend to be quite strong.

I think one big missing piece of information we need to judge the FUTURE health of the hobby (as opposed to its current apparent robustness) is the demographics of the online actors. Are these mostly the same people who attended shows, bourses and retail shops 20-25 years ago and have now moved to the Internet (like me), or are they (perhaps younger) people who have entered the hobby anonymously through this venue? The answer is surely both, but in what proportion? In other words, does the hobby have a robust farm system or is it a big league club enjoying current success but without much talent in the pipeline? I don't think we know.

It would be fascinating to have info on album sales by the larger publishers. It still takes an album to collect by and large. Printable pages are still a small percentage from what I see.