Quote:
... I was speaking figuratively when I said that they make no effort to grow their buyer base ...
I do not see that
figuratively attenuates
incorrectly.
Quote:
... But they have only just started doing online banner ads and proper paid search ads ...
So you (finally!) saw some banner ads and drew a broad 'figurative' conclusion.
And not for the first time (in this thread).
You also saw some search results, and spun an ambitious explanation for those results.
And, you also read some online comments from "thousands" (your word) of sellers - who you readily admit were disproportionately unhappy sellers - and spun an ambitious explanation for their remarks.
Quote:
... So, I'm sure they pay Google dearly for their exposure now ...
Again with the "sure", which means that you a guessing, albeit confidently.
But I am
not guessing when I say that Google AdWords are a public auction, in which the prices of keywords depend on how badly the other bidders want to get a good ranking in the search results for that keyword.
Quote:
... None of this means that they have been wise, effective or prudent in terms of how they advertise and how they grow their base ...
That's just name-calling.
ebay operates in an enormously competitive space. They lose old buyers, they gain new buyers, and the real-world bottom-line results are the steady increase in sales etc etc etc in the Form 10-K ... cited in an earlier post, for your convenience.
Quote:
... Just because their revenue has gone up, does not mean that revenue for their sellers has ...
Math! The Form 10-K gives the sellers' total sales,
ebay's take rate, etc, so you can easily check what you just said and, then, say that you were only speaking figuratively.
Quote:
... I will bet that most of the growth is coming from these things and not from genuine marketplace growth ...
Again with the "bet", which means that you a guessing, albeit confidently.
Math! The Form 10-K gives the sellers' total sales,
ebay's take rate, etc, so you can easily check what you just said and, then, say that you were only speaking figuratively.
Hint: The Form 10-K reports revenue from third-party ads in
Marketplace services, and reports revenue from fees on sellers in
Marketplace transaction fees, both have which have increased, year after year, during 2016-2018.
Quote:
... Again, I go back to how the sellers are doing and how so many are losing their livelihoods because their sales are drying up and no matter what they try to do, they can't get it back ...
This is an important step below anecdotal evidence, as you have provided no actual anecdotes ... just extrapolations from the complaints of admittedly unhappy sellers.
Quote:
... If E-bay's growth was truly coming from increases in buyer spending, then this wouldn't be happening to the degree that it is.
The Form 10-K reports Gross Merchandise Volume, which is the money spent by the buyers, which has increased, year after year, during 2016-2018.
Quote:
... I note that you haven't even addressed my central argument. As usual you have fixated on 1 or 2 things and tried to disprove it and then declare that since you've successfully debunked that, then my whole argument is no good ...
Unfair! Your central argument is hypothetical, and you have defended it as hypothetical.
When you asserted a fact, I presented convincing counter-factuals.
You are free to offer more public, verifiable facts to support your 'model'.
Quote:
... You deal with the overall issue the person is arguing, which for me is whether a company will use information that it has to its advantage when it can and when doing so will benefit them ...
This is a tautology. Yes, people with information have the choice of using information ... you will notice that this is what I have done, perhaps
ad nauseum.
But you have told us what information was used, and how that information was used (secret algorithms, cabals of contract programmers, the works) and, when challenged, defended your argument as a hypothetical for which you created data, but you say that the data does not matter.
You've constructed a very elaborate explanation ... but it is for events & outcomes that are not visible & verifiable.
Cheers,
/s/ ikeyPikey
Posted 02/26/2019 11:16 am
