US Collection For Evaluation

Would be grateful for opinions as to fair market price.

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/kngednmm...rnFQyba?dl=0

Lots of photos - sorry!

MDroth,
Is this a collection you are considering buying, or one you are selling? Not that it will change my evaluation, but it may change the tone of my presentation. :)

So I'm assuming it's something you are selling...
It's an interesting lot with some moderate value issues. If we consider the classic items, there is a lot of damaged items so they essentially would price out at $0 for the purpose of a collection evaluation. Some of the modern stuff is a mix of used and unused, no way to see what is hinged, and not, so anything from around 1940 - 1990 I would expect as "hinged", and evaluated it that way as well. The full sheets, and more modern pieces I would expect to be MNH. The Kansas & Nebraska overprints are incomplete, and mixed condition.
The back of book is interesting, and reasonably well represented. Some of the newspaper stamps are fakes, and the Officials are a bit damaged. Airmail has a nice C1 - C13, and C18. The stock book is mostly damaged and heavily cancelled stamps, so modest value there.
I would say overall, the set should go for between $5,000 and $9,000 depending on who's bidding.

It is my collection and I am most likely going to be selling it.

I would also assume most of the '40-'90 is hinged - actually haven't checked it. The more modern stuff is definitely mnh - likely from mid-'80s onward. There are obviously a couple fake newspapers in there, as well as some obvious trimmed 1st series revenues. Other than some of the far bob stuff - battleships/documentaries - all is properly id'd. The only other stamp in the whole collection I doubt is real is the 315.

Thanks for the look & opinions!!

That's a nice collection.

Thanks very much! Appreciate the comments. Was kind of hoping for some more thoughts/opinions on price...as folks have the time to look...

If you do comparables on SAN looking at Kelleher, Rasdale, Harmer etc. I would say $1000 to $2000 based upon the scans. The classics are weak, the majority is face and the quality and centering are problematic. That is my two cents worth.

I only had time to look at a few pages here and there, but you might want to go through and recheck all the IDs as Scott #472 on page 33 appears to be misidentified. It was the only one I saw but, as I said, I only looked at a few pages and, then, only briefly. Nice collection, though.

Yeah, the 315 is also a fake. But I didn't value it for exactly that reason.
In any collection there are always misidentified stamps, and that's part of the buyers burden to weigh when bidding on them.
We buy 20 - 30 collections a year on average. What I saw certainly merits more than $1k price tag... but it's not massive either.

One thing I forgot to mention in your collection that does make it more than the "average bear" collection, are the number of nice cinderlla's you have. Some of which can fetch $30-$35 each on their own. So you get some value from that as well.
Let us know if you're going to list it on ebay.

As mdroth asked for more specifics on pricing his collection I would also like to see that. I would be the most interested in a top 10 or 15 of stamps and assumed pricing- after all, it is on screen. I will check back later and hope there is something more specific. TY

What more specific do you want? There's 705 pages, and none of us are going to go stamp-by-stamp in it... not to mention condition issues, which is why I always value collections below the expected "CV". Unless there is some clear evidence that the material is reasonably superior, I'm always going to value what I see at 10% - 25% of CV. Experience shows two critical problems with most collections:
1) Collectors massively overvalue their own material. They base their view of the value of the stamp on CV without understanding (or considering) that their stamps are not at least VF centered, and are WITHOUT faults of any kind in order to reach that CV. Even a tiny corner/perf crease will result in a loss of 10% - 20% of CV even on highly sought after stamps (like the 292 or 191).
2) Too many stamps are misidentified. (That includes fakes). Bank Notes, WFs, Newspaper, Postage Due, all notoriously misidentified. I can see ID errors in this set already. Clearly in this collection the 315 is problematic. I took the time to download the whole set as PDF. I looked through every page. I'm pretty confident in my range.

A few additional comments then:
Page 1 Locals - Highly faked. The images aren't detailed enough to evaluate them. The BLood's Penny looks authentic, the others are questionable. The Hussy's are low value.
Page 2 - The 7 and 9 are unexceptional, the 10 is misidentified (11), the 10A is torn at bottom, and has only 2 complete margins. The 11's are unexceptional, the 17 has only 2 margins.
Page 3 - The 24 is damaged (perfs at top left) and poor centering (design into bottom perf), the 25 is damaged (trimmed perf at bottom) the 26A is misidentified, it is a 26, from bottom of sheet. The 29 is damaged, missing upper right corner, creases galore, perf damage all around the 35 is 0 value, missing lower left corner, the 36 has only 2 margins, and damaged lower left corner. The 37 is cut at right, and appears chemically altered, the 38 is ok, but not great.
Page 4 - The 63 is unexceptional, the 64 is poorly centered, and rough at the top. 65, 68, 69 are ok, the 70 is creased, damaged, and off center, with an ugly cancel, the 71 and 72 are one of the highlights of the collection.
73 is 2 margin, VG centered, 75 is dubious (color is wrong, might be altered 76) and damaged at upper left 76 is ok. 77 is not attractive, and while perf shift, not enough to be considered an EFO, 78 damaged lower right corner, perfs on both sides missing.

Sorry guys, that's as far as I'm going.

this is a great lot! id estimate between $3,500 - $4,000

Thank you, ClassicPhilatelist for the detailed information. My purpose is to learn more about evaluation by looking at the stamps and the descriptions. I do think that post cancels are interesting.

Given the condition problems and the amount of face this would be estimated at 3 to 5 % of cv for the classic material and 50 % of postage value for the balance. Bidders would not be fighting over it. In fact it might be passed. In order to achieve the 3500 to 5000 dollar estimates you would need to have, let us say, 5000 in face and 30,000 in classic cv. No. 1000 dollars or a bit more.

rogdcam,
3% of CV even for a stamp would have to be serious damage. I think 10% - 15% is more realistic for what is there. The 3% for things like the entirely missing corner is fair, but that's major damage. We occasionally sell of "damaged lots" for people who couldn't otherwise afford some of the higher value stamps. These fillers sometimes surprise us, we expect 5%, occasionally get up to 15%.