Mystic Suspending Shipments

The scenario if this disease spreads out of control is not one in which the economy is any better than keeping people home, and it may even make things worse. A study from Imperial College London projects the worst case scenario thusly: by the end of April every hospital bed in the US is full. By the end of June, for every available critical-care bed, there will be roughly 15 COVID-19 patients in need of one. By the end of the summer, the pandemic will have directly killed 2.2 million Americans, not counting those who will indirectly die as hospitals are unable to care for people with heart attacks, strokes, and car accidents,etc.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-03-2020.pdf

Again, this is worst-case, and I'm not saying that it's likely to play out that way. Still, even if what happens is one-quarter of that, which would probably actually be optimistic, the economy would still be at a standstill. Restaurants would still be closed, venues would still be cancelling shows, people wouldn't be shopping much at stores, etc.

The best thing to do at this point is to continue with social distancing for a few more weeks, then take stock of where things stand. Areas that seem to have it under control might be able to open up earlier than where it's still spreading. Maybe we open restaurants but put an occupancy & distancing restriction on them. There are a lot of options between "complete lockdown" and throwing caution to the wind. There's no reason to think we're going to be quarantined until the last case is extinguished, just until we have things under control, and right now things are definitely not under control. It's going to take a few more weeks, at least, until we get to that point. We just need to be patient until then.

I am sure that that scenario is one of the possibilities. But no one will have any idea until the time passes and we can then take stock of the then current situation.

I talked to two doctors, a PA, and two RNs today. They all felt that without an antibody test there is no way to understand how many asymptomatic people are walking around right now. The possibilities range from there may be millions of folks down to there are very few people. The 'go no/go' test to check if you currently have it is only half the data needed to accurately understand the mortality rate and just how contagious this thing really is. They have no idea how many people might have had COVID and never had any symptoms at all. If it turns out that an asymptomatic person can show no signs but can spread it to other folks then it will change how they approach controlling the problem. The healthcare workers I talked to today feel that getting an antibody test (which requires drawing blood) in place represents a game changing weapon.
Don

A number of professionals have been saying that all along.

An antibody test is definitely being worked on, not only so the immune go about life as normal, but also because a transfusion of antibodies is a potential treatment as well as a potential vaccine. As a vaccine (if it worked as such), it's not going to save us because the process would be too slow, but there's a good chance it'll work as a treatment. The big question is how many people will be willing to donate and how many people can be treated per donation. It'll take some time to work all that out.

My Post Office has recently hung a ceiling to countertop transparent shield at the counter to protect the postal workers from the breath of customers. You have to slide your outgoing packages, etc.. under the shield. There are more than 6 thousand confirmed cases on Long Island. Testing is still hard to get. Likely many more cases out there. The Postal Service is adapting to the threat.

My post office has had that for 25 years that I know of, although it did not have it 55 or 60 years ago. So I guess it just depends on where one is....

Artful - the antigen and antibody tests are imminent here, so presumably elsewhere too

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ntigen-tests

In terms of screens, post offices and banks had high glass screens even when I was a child. There is much variation as "proper" post offices have closed, and new counters opened in small supermarkets - mine has quite a small screen, probably only a foot or so high.

gettinold,

They are doing something similar in foodstore checkout counters too.

Jack Kelley

jkelley01938

I've seen something about that on TV. Some retail clerks/cashiers come into contact with hundreds of people per shift. Dangerous work at this point. I haven't seen it yet in any store or gas station I've been in recently. I expect to see it eventually. I've only seen a few cashiers wearing masks and gloves.

A company here is offering shops etc "sneeze screens" on a not-for-profit basis

https://www.carousellights.com/sneezescreens

I have always been surprised that UV light has not been more widely used even prior to this episode. It took off for a while and then it seemed to fade away (no pun intended).

Ultraviolet light kills virtually every pathogen and I have used UV lights to kill pathogens in fish aquariums for decades. Of course, strong UV light can blind you so removing the shielding that encloses an aquarium UV would be dangerous.
Due to my immunocompromised situation over the last 6 years, this stuff is in my wheelhouse. I maintain sets of clothes and shoes which I use when I go to any medical facility. I remove these in the garage and never enter the house with them on. As weather permits, those sets of clothes get hung on the clothes line in full sun before I will put them into the wash.
Don

They're probably more at risk than anyone except health care workers. I avoid going to the store as much as possible, but when I do, I get in and out as quickly as possible while avoiding people as much as possible. They don't have that choice, they're stuck there for 8 hours or more, interacting with hundreds of people. Their potential exposure, given the hours they work in public and the number of people coming in and out, is probably hundreds of times what mine is.

Stores in my area are giving workers "hazard pay" and extra benefits, which is a good thing. I wish they'd also put a tip jar at the checkout counter for them, I know I'd toss in a few extra bucks or add something extra to my charge card bill. At least this crisis is showing people who really is "essential" to our daily living.