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Catalogue And Market Value Changes Over The Past 17 Years Or So

 
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Australia
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Posted 04/09/2021   8:44 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this topic Add melbourne_yankee to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
During the long Victoria lock down I was able to pick up a brand new 2018 SG Commonwealth & British Empire Stamps 1840 - 1970 catalogue for a very reasonable price. Yes, even that is out of date by now.

The last SG catalogue that I had been using was the 2004 Commonwealth & British Empire Stamps 1840 - 1952 catalogue.

So a 13 year difference in catalogues and a 17 year real world difference. (The Scott specialized catalogue I'm using is only a little bit newer - a 2008 edition. I'd like to pick up a newer one, but the prices are ridiculous along with postage from the USA.)

I am starting to go through the collection and make an inventory list.

Of course the prices in the new catalogue are generally much higher with some stamps up a considerable amount.

For example many Newfoundland stamps have gone, way up with a lot of stamps up in 'catalogue value' by 100%.

I haven't checked other countries yet, but I'd make a SWAG that other countries have seen an increase in catalogue value as well - some more and some not as much.

So not having paid much attention to the catalogue values of much of the stuff in my collection over the years, I'm wondering how realistic those prices are and again how much they have changed since the 2017 catalogue was put out...........

Just a general comment would be nice...Have market values followed the catalogue values up by that much?
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Posted 04/09/2021   9:58 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Nobody has ever really explained how catalog values are arrived at. Super Top Double Secret I guess. How may times has anybody seen something sell for full catalog value? Not many times would be the honest answer. Right now market prices are actually pretty strong for many areas. Not all but quite a few. As always catalog value is stated in order to provide some context I suppose. Some relativity. When I am buying outright or bidding I will either pay commensurate with how much I want a given item or bid up to the point where it does not feel right to me. I never buy based upon a set percentage of catalog. Condition, how often you see the item, do I really need it to complete a goal all come into play.

There is no rule of thumb percentage nor is there a "right" price. It depends upon what you are looking at, how many people also want what you are looking at in that moment and whether or not it is a rational or emotional transaction.

I say that you should research what things have actually sold for on eBay or Stamp Auction Network or similar venues in order to get a feel for the market.

As an example, I collect Russia, Spink has 11 sets of C12b-13b at auction right now in one lot. They have some issues but are not rubbish by any means. Catalog value is in excess of 40,000 Pounds. Estimate is less than 10 % of that. They are low issue number stamps that fit the scarce to rare definition by quantity issued and are assigned high catalog values. In reality they are always for sale. Always. They are easy to find and almost never, ever go for full catalog value.

On the other hand there are stamps that are assigned catalog values of less than $10 that I have been searching for forever. I will pay full catalog value and maybe then some.
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Posted 04/09/2021   10:58 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rismoney to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Agree totally rogdcam. In the modern errors world, it's all over the map. You would think known quantities would be key drivers dictating price, but it's just not a clean supply and demand model. 50 of a stamp can be a large number. Example- A 1501b is seemingly always available at $200-250 with cat being $600. To me this market is so under priced, because there isn't demand. There are more 233a. At that is so much pricier.

It doesn't mean sellers will care to drop the price absent of buyers. There is no retail impetus to liquidate it seems. People who have this stamp, aren't desperate. Will Scott price adjust this to 200 for the 2022 catalog? Not if the dealers reports are what fuel the cat prices....

Other stamps are just super impossible to find and when ones turns up, it becomes a feeding frenzy for bidders. Then there is no deal to be had. Auctions aren't the panacea either with tax, premium, shipping, insurance and fees you could be crushed.

Outside of trophy stamps and turning bulk into small chunks, investing in stamps is awful. Do it for the fun.

In general catalog prices are a good baseline of how much your are willing to get ripped off on your purchases. I try not to use my catalog for valuation, but rather info.




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Posted 04/10/2021   05:03 am  Show Profile Check 51studebaker's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add 51studebaker to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Catalogs have two primary purposes; identification and value. most all catalog fail at values since once they raise values it hurts catalog sales if they lower values. Imagine what would happen if next year catalog's were to drop value across the board by 35% or more. Dealers who advertise in the catalogs would be mad, hobbyists would be mad.

Catalog publishers also fail at describing and communicating how much inflation increase is covered in each annual issue. In the years described above (2004 to 2018) the cumulative rate of inflation rate rose 33%.

Many catalog publishers are also trying to set values (as opposed to communicating values) and acknowledge this in their introduction. 'The minimum value' is typically based upon whatever number they feel should cover the cost of stocking and handling a stamp. How do they calculate what it costs to stock and handle a stamp? I am pretty sure they traditionally used feedback from dealers; legacy dealers who paid rent for brick and mortar stores. Why would minimum values be established using a type of seller who is as rare as Bigfoot? What percentage of stamp sellers today are paying rent for a retail space?

In my opinion catalog publishers should transition to using a 'rarity factor' as opposed to monetary value. This would relieve them from trying to determine the 'demand' side of the market value equation. 'Demand' is by far the most difficult, and most ephemeral, part of the equation. By focusing only on rarity their catalogs would be more accurate and more relevant. But I doubt that they will never do this; as long as hobbyists continue to buy costly new annual catalogs it pays to publish inaccurately high values.
Don
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Posted 04/10/2021   08:19 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I think too that Publisher's such as Scott try and be all things to all collectors and end up short. Specifically they are more general practitioners than specialists in areas. In Scott's Russia there are many stamps that have been priced the same way for years that are obviously worth more due to being very difficult to locate. You could call them scarce to even rare but the Scott value is in the single dollars. Scott undoubtably went by bad information OR by published quantities issued which in no way reflects reality. There are back stories to these issues that increase their scarcity but if you went by the numbers printed you would never know how difficult it is to acquire them. In this case the Zagorsky catalogs fill the void and publish values that reflect the reality of the situation.

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Posted 04/10/2021   08:41 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add NSK to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Catalogues started out as dealer's price lists of available items. They never were meant to reflect market value. In GB, Stoneham claims it reflects market prices.

In a recent SG Great Britain auction, I saw almost all line-engraved stamps go over estimate and the majority with four margins or decent perforations over full SG catalogue. There was a nice example of a stamp I wanted. It went over catalogue price and SG advertised an almost as good example at a lower price than realised at the auction.

In november I noticed one of the 1883/4 lilacs in an auction go for quite a bit over catalogue price. It was the only unmounted mint example of the stamp I have seen in the last four or five years. In the same auction, a superb unmounted mint example of a "rare" shade of one of the Jubilee issues went for about a quarter of the price for a similar stamp advertised on SG's website.
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Edited by NSK - 04/10/2021 08:42 am
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Australia
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Posted 04/10/2021   8:12 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add melbourne_yankee to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
"investing in stamps is awful"

Is it?

Well I guess it depends on what you term 'investing'...........

To form a decent collection one needs to 'invest' in certain things. The most important IMO is knowledge. The other is time to get that knowledge.

There are a lot of areas related to stamps that I have little knowledge of and really no interest in learning. For example, USA Washington Franklin issues.

Yeah, I have a few nice MNH examples that I picked up when I bought other stamps years ago.. They were included in the lot. I put them in the album in nice hingeless mounts and they have stayed there for the last 30 years or so without much thought.

Take the album out and look a them and that is about it. No interest in adding to them at all. Have catalogue prices gone way up? Probably, hence my question about market values following catalogue values.

Newfoundland, yeah, was interested in the stamps way back when, but the interest is really no longer there. Still have the knowledge though. I haven't bought a mint Newfoundland stamp for ages, but I just might fork out a few bucks to fill a couple of gaps in a few series such as the 1919 Caribou series or the 400th Anniversary series from 1897 to make the 'page look nice'.

Invest in knowledge and you'll be able to go go to an auction or look at a bunch of circuit sheets from a stamp club and be able to pick out stuff that hasn't been priced right.

Right now I'm mainly interested in cancels..........

That stamp with nifty cancel on it for 10 cents in the circuit book that sold on in an auction for $125...............

Or the cover I picked up from the club circuit books this past week for $A1.80 worth 40 times that much.




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Posted 04/10/2021   8:37 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
And catalogs won't help much with valuing a particular cancel.
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Posted 04/11/2021   12:47 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add redwoodrandy to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
ROI
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Posted 04/11/2021   07:34 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
ROI=ROFL
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Posted 04/11/2021   12:54 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add oldboldandbrash to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
The only ROI that I find genuinely possible is when you buy stuff from someone who knows nothing about what they're selling, or if you manage to simply find a sale nobody else knows about. If you understand the market well enough, you could recognize if something is popular RIGHT NOW, and if it is, sell sell sell and take what you can get so that you can "invest" in something you actually like and want to keep in your collection. I find myself keeping stamps from countries that I don't even collect simply because the magic catalog says the value is high. In reality, it isn't, based on eBay auctions and whatnot. Perhaps I keep them to hold out hope. Buy low sell high feels sneaky to me, but in "business" nothing is fair
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Posted 04/11/2021   1:43 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rismoney to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Information assymetry is a big one.

But that doesn't allow you to collect what you want per se, but moreso what the market is offering and you seizing opportunity.

Bulk purchases broken down can be a source of income, if the time spent in the breakdown is properly accounted for. As the prices for these lots have increased, as more flippers come in, I think the margins have come down.

Investing in Siegel type auction material, I think isn't immediately obvious how to take advantage. I think there is some US tax loopholes being worked here, involving donating auction proceeds for trusts/inheritance advantages. Amass a few million dollars worth of stamps and donate it after auction seems to be a popular approach. Pure ROI on the best of breed stamps is just a rich man's game akin to art, antiques, and other fine things thing.

But straight up collecting, filling pages, even the hard ones usually means paying more than you will get back for the stamps.
I generally find if you want the good hard to find one, you are paying more than it's worth, or you just don't get it.


The media sensationalizes crazy auctions, or finds in all the collectibles markets. Uncle Jimmy's baseball card collection...
Noone ever talks about the money spent to create these things. They then editorialize, and say something implying you too could have hidden gems in your collection or that you can just find them by looking. The fact is that we are not in Generation 1,2 or 3 even of collecting. So the likelihood of new "discoveries" goes down as people's inheritances are processed and brought to market.




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Posted 04/11/2021   2:02 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add John Becker to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Investing or ROI has much more to do with buying correctly than in the selling. The money is made when you buy smartly.
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Edited by John Becker - 04/11/2021 2:03 pm
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Posted 04/12/2021   05:55 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add melbourne_yankee to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
"And catalogs won't help much with valuing a particular cancel"

For Japanese stamps the JSCA (Japanese Stamp Specialized Catalog) has a nifty supplement to their catalogues (or did as mine is from 2002 - 03 and I also need to get a new one of those as well) that prices cancels on early definitives and pre-war commemorative stamps.

"if the time spent in the breakdown is properly accounted for"

Well if you are retired and have no hope of ever working again your time is free or in other words some may say 'worthless' so anything brought in in is a huge ROI!!!

"The only ROI that I find genuinely possible is when you buy stuff from someone who knows nothing about what they're selling"

Really?

Some of my best buys have come from stamp club circuit sheets or at stamp club auctions.

And even better were the buys from stamp dealers here in Melbourne that evidently 'knew nothing about what they were selling'!!!
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Posted 04/12/2021   06:55 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add angore to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Durland US Plate catalog has values but do not think they are any more useful than Scott. Deegam (Machins) uses a scale 10 value ranges.

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