Are There Any Formulas For Working Out The Value Of A Stamp?

Hello again.

I am back, and this time I have what could ver well turn out to be a dumb question, but I was wondering, if there is any such thing as a formula for working out the approximate value of a stamp.

I was just watching a documentary on space, that mentioned an equation, that is used for caluculating the probability of finding alien life in space, and I wondered if the same thing could be done with stamp values, and if it would be precise or not.

If you knew how many of a certain stamp were ever printed, could you not calculate from that and its age, more or less how many still survive today, and then use some general rules about condition and centering to work out more or less what it is worth.

Do you know of any such formulas?

Would creating such a formula be possible?

How do big name catalogs calculate values?

Thanks!

Well in my amateur novice opinion, I wouldn't really say there is a formula however there are plenty of factors.

1. Rarity
2. Condition of the stamp. (No faults)
3. Market Condition (Recession period means lesser value)
4. Market Demand (Do not confuse with Market Condition) - Example: India and China are very collectible and go for better prices than other areas in the current environment.
5. Error - If you happen to find some sort of error that occurred during the printing process.
6. Availability in the Market

No such formula exists to my knowledge. There are a number of variables in place that determine the value of a given stamp, most notably a tracking of previous sales. Even at that, there is no guarantee as to a stamp's value.

As I am primarily a US stamp collector, I can tell you that even though the Scott catalog may indicate values based on previous sales, secondary market prices heavily discount the common material often resulting in sales of only 20% to 30% of catalog list prices. Of course, common stamps are the most discounted. The scarcer items will always sell for more and, if rare enough, in some situations stamps can realize prices well above catalog value. However, that would be the exception rather than the norm in most cases.

On the other hand, if you collect covers, that can put a whole different light on the subject of value, since covers often contain desirable postmarks, backstamps, other postal markings, and even historical references to the addressee, that can often affect value. So a basic stamp that may be worth only $1 could be worth many times that amount on cover, as the supply of on-cover examples are often much more scarce and ultimately more desirable to collectors.

I would also point out that as far as modern US stamps are concerned the idea that one could accurately calculate the true number of stamps printed is often a guessing game at best. Sure, new stamp announcements clearly list the quantities of stamps printed, but that doesn't take into account the reprints that may be needed during the active sale of a given stamp, or the number of stamps that are returned by post offices for destruction after the set time limit has expired for them to be kept on sale locally. While the post office may keep these records, in most cases they are not released to the general public, which makes it nearly impossible to accurately track the actual quantities of stamps sold for any given issue.

Hi!
Well, I'm a retired business analyst and did a lot of calcs with formulas and matrixes and the like. As much as I would like to figure a formula for stamp values, it just ain't gonna happen. My best guide is actual sales prices, especially ebay. Of course all the factors WT1 mentioned above enter into those comparisons, but it does get one into the ballpark.

Of course there is this thing called timing.......... which of course has a heavy relationship to supply and demand.

As far as catalog prices go, I consider them pretty much at the top of a large market range.