A Question That Has Always Bugged Me..?

Hi
I always wondered where Unitrade and Scott got prices for the stamps they put in their catalogues..??

What I mean is take a look at my stamp below...It is a Scott #137 and the quantity printed were 25,000 pairs only according to Scott..They rate the price as $100.00 for a pair and add $100.00 for NH.

Here is my question..how many of these were used and how many still exist...For all we know there could be only 100 pairs left (probably not)..but without doing some sort of database on stamp forums or other areas to collect data, we do not know how many still are around..??

For valuable and scarce items, there are those who study such specific stamps and they are usually on the lookout of forming and updating a sort of inventory of what is know to exist and who owns them. This is especially followed through on auctions of the item or when the item comes to market by someone and what the item sells for which influences the price listed in the catalogue for such items. For valuable stamps there exist such records or surveys of how many are known to presently exist and what prices such stamps have sold for over a period of time up until the present.

jogil...Where do theses databases exist and who is doing it..how can ANYONE find out how many of ANY stamps are still in existence..??..To me, there is no way that anyone with a database or not can gather information that is out there without talking to the whole world..!

It is not the catalogue that determines the price of a stamp but the market. And a price is not always achieved because of rarity but by what is available to buy and how much it is sought after. Not how many exist but how many are available. No easy answer to this.

Terry

Wert

If you have a Unitrade catalogue go to the CONTENTS page. There you will find the section called "Introduction". Go down the list and near the top of the list is this heading :
CATALOGUE VALUE. The page number is given. Turn to that page and you will find the answer to the question that has always bugged you.

lorddenning...took your advice and looked it up in Unitrade..BUT, can they tell me how many still exist, or for that matter, can any organization tell me..see what I am getting at..??..

Wert

Simple answer : No.

Catalogue values are guides for collectors.

To understand what you should be paying for stamps I suggest you go to auction sites such as Maresch and see what people actually pay for stamps. This will give you a better sense of what they sell for.

It's a complicated question you ask. There is no mathematical formula or spread sheet that will explain what stamps are "worth". Through experience you can start to get an understanding though.

I find this a very interesting subject, but probably only applicable to those very special, low volume items. I had started a previous thread about an Italo Balbo cover where it was stated that over 100,000 were prepared, but an estimated 5000 or so still exist.

https://goscf.com/t/24108

Of course, in the case of the famous Inverted Jenny, there is actually a concerted effort to identify each and every one of the remaining stamps, luckily because they were numbered on the back.

So, to answer you basic question about how to find out how many of the originals still exist ... No one knows. To find out how much something is worth ... whatever someone is willing to pay for it.

And that is a shame..Because for all we know, using my Scott #137 stamp as an example, there could be 25,000 left out there, that would drop the original price we see in Unitrade..But, if by chance I had the only existing one left (we know I don't), I could ask $10,000,000.00 for it..That to me is a big, big problem that true value of stamps face.

wert,

It really doesn't matter how many exist if they are scarce on the market. It is this scarcity coupled with desirability that racks up the price.

Terry

Then there are these beauties. The world's second official stamp issue. As of 1981 27 of the 2d blue were believed to exist. One 2d blue sold for £1,000,000 in 2011. A combination of rarity, scarcity to the market, and desirability. Oh boy, do I want one of those.

But, something to look forward to. There is a German/French film co-production in the works titled "The Blue Mauritius". A tale of five thieves who endeavour to steal one of these beautiful stamps.

Can't wait.

Terry

Say for a moment that one did actually pull it off and actually steal one of these beauties. How would they ever re-sell a stamp with such a high visibility about it? Otherwies it could just be easily be looked on as either a reproduction or fake and if it was proved genuine in the re-sale process things may quickly go from bad to worse for the thieves. Just a thought?

They would sell it in the same way that art thieves have always managed to sell stolen works of great art. They steal to order, presumably through international middlemen and crooked dealers.They would probably only realise 10% of the work's value, but that would still be an enormous amount. The buyers of such rarities are not interested in showing their acquisitions off, or bragging about their ownership. They just want to have them and to look at them. A few minutes spent googling will bring up lists of stolen paintings that have never been recovered.

Terry

Wert: the permutations have been done, the algorithms derived and papers published that specifically relate to your question. The material is used in the field of forensics (i.e., stamp fraud). No doubt, it is already being applied in relation to the recent finding of the rare Canadian Queen Victoria (i.e., what are the chances of another showing up given the numbers). I may be mistaken but I thought I saw a recent thread that spoke to this issue including the mathematical equations that were involved (something you would appreciate I'm sure). Total recall on my part has been hindered somewhat by the consumption of too much alcohol and bacon and possibly the long-term impact of a life-time of vaccines.

I'm talking right outside my area of expertise, so I apologise if I've got hold of the wrong end of the stick entirely.

However, this particular item looks as if it was aimed squarely at the philatelic market. Imagine the reaction from the average post office customer at being offered a couple of 2 cent stamps without their perforations. Imagine how pleased the average post office counter clerk would be at having to manually cut up the sheet for sale.

That being so, the survival rate of imperf pairs like this was probably very high: quite possibly better than 90%. Just about every example would have gone into a collection. On the other hand, a purely accidental imperf, like the Hong Kong George VI 8 cent, naturally had a much lower survival rate.

Just started to read Helen Morgan's book "The Blue Mauritius". Will look for the movie in the coming months.

From what I understand the cataloque value of a stamp is an estimation of what a dealer would charge "retail". This is based on his cost and premium to acquire that stamp . The market determines the liquidation or purchase price of the stamp . For Example Bhutan silk stamps (Thanka ) Scott # 105-105D catalog for around $20 ( 2004 Scotts Catalogue ). They sell as a full set for around $175 -$200. They are considered undervalued. These stamps surface now and then but are not commonly available as say scotts US # 740 --- National Parks Yosemite.