A Question That Has Always Bugged Me..?

Helen Morgan's "Blue Mauritius" is a great read. She brings the world back then alive. I am sure you will enjoy it.

Terry

cynical...stop drinking and try to remember for me...

Wert: link in the first post will take you to some interesting reading if you are mathematically inclined:

https://goscf.com/t/34718&SearchTerms=forensic

cynical...Thanks for the info..lots to read..yikes..Thanks again...But, I have a funny feeling that I will not get a definite answer to whether there are 25,000 sets of my stamps, or 10 left..???

Wert, there must be more than 10 left as I have a block of 4, 2 pairs and one single used...

Hi Gilles le timbre...Ya, I was just tossing the thought around..I know there has ro be more than 10 pairs in existence, but using my stamp as an example, I am no where nearer knowing how many are still out there..

I always find it interesting when collectors try to associate the value of a stamp with the number that are in existence. To me, the simple key is the relationship of supply and demand. Many stamps are available in small quantities but are not as desirable to collectors. This is one of the reasons why plate proofs are often worth much less than their historical significance and the number available might seem to suggest. While these are interesting items, they are not as in demand with stamp collectors as their small numbers might suggest because they are not really official stamps.

One of my favorite examples of this is the King Edward 2c carmine (Scott #90). In my 2012 Unitrade, this stamp lists for $85 dollars in mint VF condition even though there were billions of these stamps printed and obviously many, many thousands still available. On the other hand, the imperforate version (#90a) is only worth $60 as a pair. Yet this version of the stamp was only released in a quantity of 100,000. Even though the imperforate version would surely have gone mostly to collectors, it would seem very unlikely that there could be more of these still around more than 100 years later. I believe that the reason why the imperforate pair is valued considerable less than the regular perforated version is because it was not really an official release intended to be used for postage. It was released deliberately as a "collectible".

The same rules seems to hold true for the Admiral imperfs. Their catalogue value has nothing to do with the quantity originally issued and probably has little relationship to the reasonably small quantity that must still be in existence. I think that most collectors are content to say that they have all the Admirals even if they have not acquired the imperforate versions. Even the standard coil stamps have similar or higher values than the imperforates because they are more desirable to the majority of collectors since they are stamps that were legitimately released for postage rather than as "collectibles".

Modern souvenir sheets show the same type of pattern in that the souvenir sheet is rarely worth much more than the value of the individual single stamps that are contained within it even though considerably less of them are printed.

Just my two cents!

Scottamer...You make some valid points, but you are missing my question, it is NOT about stamp dollar value, it is about how many are in existence...We have absolutely NO idea how many of any stamp has really survived the garbage can...If you take my Scott #137 for example..Can you tell me how many there are left in the world, NO..Nobody can without building an annalist database and collecting that information...I don't really care what the value of my stamps are, I do it for the hobby, I have never sold a stamp to anyone, or on ebay....

I always wondered where Unitrade and Scott got prices for the stamps they put in their catalogues..??

What I mean is take a look at my stamp below...It is a Scott #137 and the quantity printed were 25,000 pairs only according to Scott..They rate the price as $100.00 for a pair and add $100.00 for NH.

Wert, You say you aren't worried about price or value but the first two question in your thread indicate otherwise. I do understand you would like to know how many exist of a particular stamp but this in reality is unachievable. Take Scott Catalog Canada #32 for example. The number of reported copies is three. That is because they have been identified and certified. That isn't to say more cannot exist that have not been identified and or certified. Even with an accurate database you will only know the number of reported copies. There in all likely hood be more than are reported. I also think it would be fun to know exactly how many stamps are available for each stamp but in reality I don't think it can be done except with a few rare exceptions. Stamps are also lost from time to time from environmental disasters fire and flood or even a mishap with a vacuum cleaner could change that number.

watermark...i was trying to understand the price of stamps versus the rarity of stamps..i know to achieve a population database is almost impossible, but it is one of those things that has bothered me for years...guess it always will.

wert, if you want an idea of relative scarcity of a stamp you could always do an informal online survey asking Forum members to report back on their holdings of that item.

I did just that back in July asking if anyone had an item cancelled with the first Ottawa Crown cancel. Since nobody responded to either the posting or the story published in The Canadian Philatelist, I am claiming that my item is unique and will claim so until someone proves otherwise.

This method will not prove an exact quantity but it will surely let you know whether an item is scarce or common.

GJP

This is the kind of question that may be capable of answering, or estimation, after several days' research in a philatelic library. For example, TJ Alexander studied and cataloged all known examples of the US 1847 issues on covers, and that work has been extended by others. See
http://www.uspcs.org/resource-cente...over-census/
My point is that you cannot say "there is no answer to this question" until you have spent days, perhaps weeks, in the libraries of the APS, RPSL, or other organizations looking to see if someone has done a census for your issue or otherwise investigated the extent of existing examples. But realistically it can't be answered by posting a question here, it requires real research.

Interesting topic like what is the meaning of life?

Unanswerable but worth posing and debating, I suppose.

My take was the tangent that cjpalmero raised -- namely that for Covers, one can begin to assemble a census for the older years. (But CJ, this is next to impossible today for stamps themselves, even with research and time. Maybe in like 50 years, someone at ebay can mine all the transactions sold and Google can monetize that data, but today--the supply of individual stamps is unknowable.)

But back to the tangent of covers--there is currently a book on Newfoundland Pence covers and its pretty definitive. They are known and tracked from owner to owner. I used it to buy a few and its fantastic. Sammy Whaley of BNAPS has one for the Cent Issue. I am toying with doing a census of all Newfoundland covers (a la Gportch's style) and asking everyone in the world to share their cover and thereby assemble some reality of a definitive supply. After all, covers do not generally disappear (pre WWII era only is my caveat)--except for the contrarian's who float a stamp and destroy the envelope.

just my 25 cents worth

gportch...I had thought of that exact thing to do..Poll the forum...Maybe putting Scott # 1 to Scott # 5 for a starter then let it run for a month, then continue with Scott # 6 to say Scott # 10, etc...The only problem I see is that not ALL members would vote (input)...And say if I got 500 people voting, what analist perportion of stamp are really out there..What I mean is say 47 out of 500 had a Scott #1, how do I relate to how many are out there...It only prove that 9.4 % of people have one...That is the problem.


And the moderators would have to allow me to post the poll in...at the same time.

1 - "US Classic Stamps Mint and Used"
2 - "Main Stamp Collecting Forum"
3 - "Canadian Stamps and Covers"
4 - "World Classic Stamps Mint and Used"

This way we could get or hit all forum members that are out there.

Wert - polling "the" forum will also be challenging, since there is no one forum to poll. There are many, many stamp forums. This is only one of those many. In fact, that would be a challenge in itself - find out how many stamp forums there are in existence!

I'm with those who put this question into the supply/demand realm, rather than an empirical effort. I'm pretty sure that I own a few things that are unique, but they are technically worthless because I may be the only one interested in them. To me, though? Priceless!